Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Recap

Monday, June 16th, 2025

Mixed futures trade continued this week with soybeans on the plus side to start while the grains posted sizable losses, especially corn. Corn was pressured by favorable US growing conditions and expectations for improved crop ratings. Building Brazil safrinha harvest and reports of very good yields compounded corn losses, although the harvest pace remains slow at 6% versus last year’s 14%. Sources claim this is from tight storage space from record soybean supplies and the better than expected corn yields. Wheat also struggled from improved global weather outlooks and building US harvest pressure. Wheat harvest has been slowed by rain, but yields remain better than expected. We are starting to hear some rumblings of quality concerns on new crop wheat though, and cash traders are closely watching this. Analysts are expecting a 13% increase in the European Union wheat crop from last year, and a record crop for India, both weighing on the complex. The soy complex was supported by the surge in soy oil following last Friday’s higher than expected biodiesel blending proposals. A bigger benefit for soy oil is the cut to incentives for foreign feedstock in biodiesel manufacturing that will boost domestic demand even more.

Cattle futures posted a solid rebound from last week’s late sell-off. Funds had added to long positions in the week ending June 10^th, with feeder cattle seeing a record fund long. Futures sold off hard to finish the week though, and today we are seeing buyers return. An easing energy complex also supported cattle futures, although packers remain concerned over future demand as high-priced beef is just making its way into the supply line. Hogs were also supported by fund buying and big weekly export demand from China. All livestock contracts remain near overbought technical levels, and this is limiting gains.