Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Recap

Wednesday, June 18th, 2025

Corn and soybeans were on the plus side for much of today’s session, but wheat was the well-defined leader of the commodity market. Wheat took support from elevated global trade flow and building weather concerns. The US winter wheat harvest has been slowed by rains and there are now concerns over quality on the mature crop. There are also increasing pockets of drought on the world wheat crop, including the Black Sea. Technical short covering supported not just wheat, but all commodities. More interest was on the outside markets to start the session, mainly the Federal Reserve meeting results and the geopolitical developments between Israel and Iran, and if the United States would get involved. Trade interest was muted for much of the session from a lack of fresh news and no desire to establish new positions ahead of tomorrow’s Juneteenth holiday break.

Livestock futures stabilized early in today’s session but struggled as the day progressed. Live cattle took support from declining slaughter weights as the average carcass weight came in at 904#, down 3# from the prior week, and up just 15# from last year. This indicates cattle lots are more current than a year ago. Trade will be watching closely to see if these lower weights are from more heifers making their way into the supply line. Boxed beef was stronger and supported futures as well. Feeders were again pressured from push back on high costs, but low inventory is providing support. Hogs were in the red as futures corrected from contract highs but also found support from the seasonal decline to slaughter weights.