Consus Ag Consulting Afternoon Recap

Tuesday, July 15th, 2025

Futures were moderately lower in the overnight sessions, but showed more optimism at the start of day trade. Wheat led the market early today, taking support from a downgrade on the Russian crop from recent weather stress, mainly drought. Corn was mostly steady to start the day as traders are running out of bearish news to extend downward pressure. The corn rating held at 74% Good/Excellent, and while historically high, was not a surprise. Soybeans were weaker to start the day following a 4-point improvement to the crop rating. The majority of the US is experiencing favorable growing conditions at the present time, but long-range forecasts are showing more heat for the Corn Belt towards the end of July. While this is not extreme, trade is aware of the potential impact of August weather on yields. In a market that is oversold and void of risk premium this is slowing the interest in extending price pressure.

Livestock futures rebounded from yesterday’s sell-off to start today. Much of yesterday’s weakness came from the technical side as cattle futures were in overbought territory. Once liquidation started in cattle it spilled over into hogs as well. Consumer demand remains steady, but packers and retailers are already starting to predict needs until the end of the US grilling season. The last thing a packer or retailer wants is to be covered with high-priced product if demand falls. Hogs found less support than cattle today following data showing growth in China’s pork production.